Is it Time to Get out of the Middle East?

This is a question that dogged me many, many times when I worked in the Middle East between 2007 and 2010. I mean, I had three great contracts, initially in Kuwait, then on to Qatar for a year and then Oman. But why the disquiet? Two words sum it up: Israel and Iran. Even back in early 2007, Israel had already 'bombed' a so-called nuclear site in northern Syria but that whole episode fizzled out like a damp squib. But the potential bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel has reared its ugly head again.

Just last week, Mr Meir Dagan, the recent head of Mossad, the Israeli Secret Police, warned of grave consequences if Israel bombs Iran. This was in light of reports that Israeli fighter jets had conducted exercises over the Italian island of Sardinia. Their training programme included attacking distant targets, conducting midair refuelling and thwarting surface-to-air missiles. A vertical vapour trail was widely visible in the sky that afternoon as the military tested a newly developed Jericho 3 ballistic missile that can presumably also carry nuclear warheads up to 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles).

Serious stuff, no? But it was the report that I read in the on-line version of the Guardian newspaper that really put my nerves on edge. It reported that ‘Britain's armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme.’ Really scary stuff. When I read this I thought oh surely not, surely we're not going to get sucked into another disasterous adventure by hanging on to the coat-tails of the United States!

The British Military of Defence (MOD) believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government. And if that wasn't enough, I then read that, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air and sea campaign.'

I won't go into the intricacies of Iran's nuclear activities; this is for more erudite mouthpieces than me to consult with, other than to say there seems to be inexorable proof that the Islamic state is up to no good.

If, and it's a massive 'if', Israel should go ahead with this nonsensical attack against Iran then the consequences are too horendous to contemplate. So, from a layman's perspective what would it mean for us expats, and, more specifically, those who are in the Middle East? When it comes to the military ramifications, then who knows where that might end, but when it comes to the global-economic side of things, then we are in no-man's land. For one thing, the Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz; that you can be certain. This small 34 mile opening to the Arabian Gulf witnesses 17.5 million barrels of oil and 3.5 billion cubic feet/day passing through on its way to Asia, Southern Africa, Europe and the Americas. All this energy is exported from Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia - so, big numbers, big business who pay hosts to 100s of 1000s of expats from every continent.

As mentioned previously the military scenario would be a regional and then a global disaster. Iran has proclaimed on many occasions that if attacked one of its immediate reactions would be to 'shut off' the Straits of Hormuz and attack all non-Iranian oil and gas transport ships in the area. Iran has also stated that not only Israel will come under fierce retailiation but also the Gulf states of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman, because these states host US and British military resources. For instance America's 5th Fleet has it's base in Bahrain.

So what does all this war-mongering mean to the Western expat eking out a living in the Gulf? Well, the big unknown is, "when is this likely to take place?" The obvious answer is, no-one knows. On the face of it Iran presses on with construction of its 'peaceful' nuclear plants. We in the West continue to monitor developments from afar, Israel remains quiescent on the matter, and Britain hangs loose with a watching brief. For me personally, I think I would be looking for alternative employment soon. Luckily enough, I got out of the Middle East last year, having spent the two previous years in Oman. Once more, there is a problem because there just isn't the same number of energy job opportunities that there once was. And with the global economy on the brink of a double-dip recession, the question is whether one stays put in the Gulf and hopes the whole thing will fizzle out. The alternative is to shut up shop, sell your house, cash in all your earnings, and go live in the northern Himalayas on $10 a day for the rest of your life. It is an option!