Regarding Libya - well I saw this coming many years ago in the early part of 1986. I had been working in Libya at a refinery in the Sirir oilfield, smack dab in the centre of Libya. Even back then, I heard rumours that the people hated Gaddafi and that he did nothing to help them, instead spreading the wealth amongst old cronies and other entities loyal to him. Even some ‘intellectuals’, middle-class petroleum professionals, echoed the same opinion of the hated dictator, but retained a ‘noble silence’ when it came to any criticism of their leader. Libya even back then was a human timebomb ready to go off at any minute. And yet here we are, a quarter of a century later, and the people have revolted against this weird, repulsive maniac. The thing is, is civil war around the corner?Well, Tunisia has been liberated from the tyrant, Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak has been deposed. The question about the latter is, where has he fled? Some news reports tell of him being accepted by the Saudi regime. If that is true, then does that not put the Saudi royal family on a par with him? Answer? Yes!
If one looks at the other Gulf countries: Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE, one can see similar trends to that of their North African counterparts: unelected, undemocratic regimes ruled by sheiks, princes and sultans. But even in the most lauded Abu Dhabi, a report in 2009 describes Issa bin Zayed al Nahyan, the half-brother of the Manchester City owner, Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan, participating in the torture of an Afghan grain dealer with whom he had had a disagreement. That’s just one instance of how these rulers - although I call them dictators - suppress the people and treat many like shit!
In the past four years I have worked on short-term contracts in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, and have visited Bahrain twice. Although Qatar, Oman and Bahrain could be said to be more liberal societies to that of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, one still senses an undercurrent of unrest. Before coming here to Azerbaijan to work, I did an extended contract in Oman. I found the Omanis a very peaceful, caring people, but I also was told about low wages, no social welfare and rising food prices. Even as a well-paid expat, I found food prices to be on a par with the UK - yep, nothing was cheap in Oman - well the petrol was cheap!
But I read with unbounded horror the other day that two demonstrators were killed on Saturday (26th February) in Oman’s second largest city, Sohar. The police also fired rubber bullets and tear gas at the demonstrators. And yet nearly every Omani I talked to during my time there raved that they had steadfast respect for the Sultan bin-Said Qaboos. However, there have also been several demonstrations in Muscat, the capital city ministries district that was keenly monitored by the ROP (Royal Oman Police).
So what does all this mean for the expat? Well, as I write this blog, hundreds of British expats have been evacuated from Libya. How many are still there, no-one really knows as most European embassies have shut up shop and left. The fear is, and I know this for a fact, should Bahrain descend into chaos, then the rest of the Gulf, including Iran could implode. This would affect oil prices, leading to a titanic economic earthquake the likes of which we have haven’t seen since World War 2. And amongst the chaos is Israel. The last thing the Jewish state wants, paradoxically, is turmoil amidst its neighbours. Israel has had its hands full in recent years dealing with Palestine and Hamas. So the Israelis are keeping a close eye on developments.
As for expats working in these countries, my advice to them is simple - start looking for another job because I personally feel that if Libya falls next, then the Middle East might totally collapse leading to God knows what. Better to act now. Even if I was working in the relative security of Dubai, I would still not feel at ease. We look at the Dubai landscape with all those glittering towers and infrastructure, the tourism, Emirates airlines, et al, and muse that this tiny emirate is a startling example of modern-day civilisation. However, this economic miracle was only achieved by importing thousands of migrant labour from the Indian sub-continent. These were/are paid something in the region of $20 a day, working a 10-hour day, in sweltering heat whilst their rulers bathe in air-conditioned palaces and rake in the profits from property sales.
Anyway, I shall end this blog by saying only this, if the rest of the Arab states deteriorate into tumult like Libya, then they will only have themselves to blame. After all, these sheiks and sultans were never elected and could be characterised by one word: dictators!
